Asian Journal of Agricultural Extension, Economics & Sociology

Crop diversification is an important strategy for improving agricultural sustainability, income stability, and resilience to climate variability in semi-arid regions. This study examined the extent of crop diversification and shifts in cropping patterns in Chitradurga District during the period 2004–05 to 2023–24. Secondary time-series data on crop area, production, and irrigation sources were collected from the District Statistical Office, Chitradurga. Crop diversification was measured using the Herfindahl–Hirschman Index (HHI) and Crop Entropy Index (CEI), while cropping pattern transitions were analyzed using Markov Chain Analysis.The results revealed substantial changes in the district’s agricultural structure. The share of cereals and millets increased from 32.47 per cent to 38.49 per cent, while pulses expanded from 6.22 per cent to 12.11 per cent. Horticultural crops showed remarkable growth, with fruits increasing from 1.01 per cent to 4.73 per cent and vegetables from 2.48 per cent to 11.93 per cent. Plantation crops also expanded from 13.83 per cent to 18.50 per cent, whereas oilseeds, though still important, declined from 42.90 per cent to 30.45 per cent. Growth rate analysis indicated that plantation crops recorded the highest long-term growth (5.33%), followed by fruits (3.58%) and vegetables (3.42%), reflecting a shift toward high-value agriculture. Diversification indices indicated an overall increase in crop diversity. The CEI increased from 1.36 in 2004–05 to 1.71 in 2023–24, while HHI values suggested moderate diversification with some recent reconcentration toward profitable crops. Markov Chain analysis showed that fruits had the highest retention probability (0.584), followed by cereals and millets (0.426), indicating greater stability in these crop groups. Significant land shifts from oilseeds to pulses, fruits, and vegetables highlighted farmers’ adaptation to changing climatic and market conditions.

The study concludes that Chitradurga district is transitioning from traditional oilseed-based agriculture toward a more diversified, market-oriented, and climate-resilient cropping system.