Analysis of Climate Change Effect on Agricultural Production in Benin
Casemir, B. Houngbedji *
Laboratoire de Recherche en Economie de Saint Louis (LARES), University of Gaston Berger, UFR SEG-UGB, P.O.Box 234 Saint-Louis, Sénégal and Laboratoire de Recherche en Economie et de Gestion (LAREG), University of Parakou, FASEG-UP P.O.Box 123 Parakou, Benin.
Adama Diaw
Laboratoire de Recherche en Economie de Saint Louis (LARES), University of Gaston Berger, UFR SEG-UGB, P.O.Box 234 Saint-Louis, Sénégal.
*Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Abstract
The purpose of this article is to analyze the effect of climate change on agricultural production in Benin. As climate is the primary determinant of agricultural productivity, agriculture remains highly vulnerable to climate change. To achieve this, cereal production is estimated based on rainfall, average temperature and carbon dioxide emitted in Benin, growth rates of land used for cereal production and the rural population. These results show that agricultural production is always dependent on climatic hazards through the average temperature in the different models. This influence is globally negative. Note that rainfall is not significant in any of the models. Also, the concentration of CO2 has a downward influence on agricultural production. Finally, adaptation is beneficial for cereal production. It is, therefore, necessary to strengthen the adaptation capacities of producers.
Keywords: Agricultural production, climate change, production function, ARDL, Benin.