Detection of Tea Export Potentiality from Bangladesh in the World Market: An Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) Approach
A. U. Noman
Department of Agricultural Statistics, Bangladesh Agricultural University, Mymensingh-2202, Bangladesh.
S. Majumder
Department of Agricultural Statistics, Bangladesh Agricultural University, Mymensingh-2202, Bangladesh.
M. F. Imam
Department of Agricultural Statistics, Bangladesh Agricultural University, Mymensingh-2202, Bangladesh.
M. J. Hossain
Department of Agricultural Statistics, Bangladesh Agricultural University, Mymensingh-2202, Bangladesh.
F. Elahi *
Department of Agricultural Statistics, Bangladesh Agricultural University, Mymensingh-2202, Bangladesh.
K. Akter
Department of Agricultural Statistics, Sylhet Agricultural University, Sylhet, Bangladesh.
*Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Abstract
Export plays an important role in promoting economic growth and development. The study is conducted to make an efficient forecasting of tea export from Bangladesh for mitigating the risk of export in the world market. Forecasting has been done by fitting Box-Jenkins type autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. The best ARIMA model is selected by comparing the criteria- coefficient of determination (R2), root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), mean absolute error (MAE) and Bayesian information criteria (BIC). Among the Box-Jenkins ARIMA type models for tea export the ARIMA (1,1,3) model is the most appropriate one for forecasting and the forecast values in thousand kilogram for the year 2017-18, 2018-19, 2019-20, 2020-21 and 2021-22, are 1096.48, 812.83, 1122.02, 776.25 and 794.33 with upper limit 1819.70, 1348.96, 1862.09, 1288.25, 1318.26 and lower limit 660.69, 489.78, 676.08, 467.74, 478.63, respectively. So, the result of this model may be helpful for the policymaker to make an export development plan for the country.
Keywords: Time series, ARIMA, stationary, forecasting.